The 2019 NCAA Championship Game takes place on Monday when the 1-seed Virginia Cavaliers take on the 3-seed Texas Tech Red Raiders. Tipoff for the final game of the 2019 NCAA Tournament is scheduled for 9:20 p.m. ET and the Cavaliers are 1.5-point favorites with the total at 118.5 in the latest Virginia vs. Texas Tech odds, down from an open of 119. Kyle Guy sank three critical free throws with 0.6 seconds left to propel Virginia to a victory over Auburn on Saturday in the 2019 Final Four. Meanwhile, Texas Tech smothered Michigan State to earn the Red Raiders' first-ever berth in a national championship game. Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring defensive slugfest on Monday night, evidenced by one of the lowest March Madness totals we've seen. With so much on the line look at the Virginia vs. Texas Tech odds from SportsLine's proven computer simulation before you make your 2019 NCAA championship predictions.

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This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It entered the postseason on an 11-5 run on top-rated plays, and It's been spot-on in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, calling Auburn's huge upset of Kentucky in the Elite 8 and nailing 14 Sweet 16 teams. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has crunched the numbers for Texas Tech vs. Virginia. We can tell you the model is leaning over, but it has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. That pick is available only at SportsLine.

The model knows the Cavaliers will rely on their timely shot-making on offense to get past a stubborn Red Raiders team. Virginia is well-known for its defense, but its offense actually ranked third in the country in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom because of its ability to create high-quality looks.

That sometimes goes unnoticed because Virginia ranked dead-last in Division I in adjusted tempo, choosing to play methodically in order to reduce the number of possessions in a game. But Kyle Guy (15.2 points per game), De'Andre Hunter (14.9) and Ty Jerome (13.5) all shoot at least 40 percent from 3-point range, so it will be tough for the Red Raiders to account for all three on any given trip down the floor. Virginia is also a sterling 25-12 against the spread this season, including 23-12 as a favorite. They're also 11-3 against the spread after fewer than four days off, as will be the case in the 2019 NCAA Championship game.
Leading scorer Jarrett Culver was held to 10 points in the national semifinal, but senior Matt Mooney matched his season high with 22 points as he drained 4-of-8 three-pointers. While UVA's last three wins have been decided by five or fewer points, the Red Raiders' closest call was a six-point win over another 1-seed, Gonzaga.

Texas Tech (31-6) executes when it matters most. In the second half against the Spartans, Texas Tech scored 38 points in just 30 possessions, continuing a pattern of impressive second-half play.

But just because the Cavaliers have a top-shelf defense doesn't mean they'll cover the Texas Tech vs. Virginia spread on Monday.

The model also knows that no team is as hot as the Red Raiders, who have won 14 of their last 15 and covered 11 straight versus winning teams. Texas Tech, which leads the nation in defensive efficiency, has held four of its five 2019 NCAA Tournament opponents to 58 or fewer points and just harassed Michigan State into 31.9 percent shooting from the floor, the Spartans' season-low.