What could be better than one final shot for an up-and-coming golfer to punch his ticket to golf's most legendary event?
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For what the Valero Texas Open lacks in big-name firepower, it compensates as the PGA Tour's version of a Willy Wonka golden ticket. The tournament serves as the last opportunity for a golfer to earn an exception for the Masters, which starts April 11.
The 2019 Valero Texas Open is the final stop on the PGA Tour before Augusta. The greens at TPC San Antonio will be fast and furious, while hole locations will be challenging in order to mimic the conditions at Augusta National for those coming to Texas for a final tuneup. The first 2019 Texas Open tee times are on Thursday morning at 8:20 a.m. ET, and the latest San Antonio weather is calling for dry conditions the first two days before thunderstorms move in on Saturday morning into the early afternoon. While many pros are taking the week off heading into the first major of the season, plenty of stars are looking to jump-start their games this week. In fact, Rickie Fowler (10-1), Tony Finau (16-1) and Jordan Spieth (20-1) are among the favorites in the live 2019 Valero Texas Open odds. With so much to consider, before you make your PGA Tour predictions this week, listen to the 2019 Valero Texas Open picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four of the last eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods' deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the 2019 Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the 2019 Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.
Now that the 2019 Texas Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Matt Kuchar, the FedEx Cup points leader and one of the top Vegas favorites, doesn't even crack the top five.
Kuchar is coming off a strong performance at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event, where he finished in second place after falling to Kevin Kisner in the final match. Despite coming up short last week in Austin, the 40-year-old has been playing extremely well this season. In fact, Kuchar has already racked up two victories and four top-10 finishes overall.
Despite this season's success, Kuchar has struggled at TPC San Antonio, failing to crack the top 10 in three of his last four Valero Texas Open starts. Plus, Kuchar has finished 22nd or worse in four of his last five starts on the PGA Tour. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded 2019 Valero Texas Open field.
Another surprise: Jim Furyk, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has all the tools needed to climb the 2019 Valero Texas Open leaderboard in a hurry.
TPC San Antonio's tight, tree-lined fairways are similar to Augusta National, which favors a player like Furyk since he leads the tour in fairways hit at 80.1 percent. Even though the course is 7,400 yards with three par-5 holes of 590 yards or more, the 48-year-old has set his schedule to make sure his distance (211th on tour) won't hinder him.
Furyk is striping it right now too, with top-20 finishes in his last three events, including a runner-up showing at the Players Championship and a ninth-place finish at the Honda Classic. He's ninth on tour in strokes-gained approaching the green at 0.852 and is 10th in average proximity to hole this season at 34 feet, three inches. If he continues to flag his irons like that, he's a threat to win on any course.
Also, the model says five additional golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.