# Investing $10K in every YC company from 2014 to 2018 | Admins

- Canonical URL: https://wefunder.com/feed/167977
- Entity ID: wefunder:feed_item:167977
- Published at: 2023-11-19 20:41:12 UTC
- Updated at: 2025-07-09 03:24:03 UTC

## Author
Mattia Astori

## Subject
Admins

## Content
YC Index Fund Playground — Data SpreadsheetSummaryInvesting in all YC companies at demo day would yield a top-quartile performing fund, but it’s virtually impossible.MethodologyThe data set that was taken for the analysis represents 9 batches of Y Combinator, from S14 to W18 consisting of 1,041 companies. The list of companies was taken from the YC website at ycombinator.com/companies.For each of the companies, it was found the last round post-money valuation from Pitchbook and our own data from past funds, and, if not available, it was used Dealroom to estimate it.It was assumed an investment of $10,000 per company at demo day, with a $15M valuation cap post-money Safe.It was then calculated the current value of a $10K investment in each of the companies and then the value of a hypothetical fund invested in all companies of that batch.Based on our proprietary data, it was calculated a fair discount based on the non-linear relationship between the growth of the valuation of the company from $15M, and the growth of unrealized returns of an investor.As an example, Mashgin’s valuation grew 100 times since demo day, from $15M to $1.5B, while our investment grew 54 times, from $50K to $2.7M. On the other hand, Astranis’s valuation grew 130 times, from $12M to $1.57B, while our investment only grew 3.45 times, from $30K to $103K.This happens because of down rounds and other events that dilute investors’ value of their original holdings. It was calculated a ratio of 0.43, so all the final numbers were discounted by roughly 60%.The same process has been followed to estimate the value of Y Combinator’s own funds, assuming an initial investment before demo day of $125K for 7% of the company, a $1.78M cap.FindingsThe funds returned on average 9.82 times the invested capital. The W16 batch was the most performant, mainly because of OpenAI which was lastly valued at $80B. Its return multiple was 28.23 times the invested capital, 9.68 without considering OpenAI in the calculation.The S18 batch was the least performant, mainly because, in my opinion, it’s still young.The top 5 companies by valuation, returned on average 69.27% of the funds, ranging from 87.57% on the W17 batch (Faire, Brex, Rippling, Retool, Solugen), to 45.97% in the S18 batch (Modern Treasury, Papa, Titan, Ajaib, Mutiny).The funds’ return multiple without their respective top 5 companies by valuation is only 2.31 times the invested capital versus the original 9.82 times.The same calculation made with the top 10 companies by valuation in the batch, shows an average return multiple of 1.26 times the invested capital.Y Combinator’s own funds, which invest in companies before demo day at a much favorable valuation, have been estimated to return on average 82.52 times the invested capital.ConclusionsAssumptionsSome current companies’ valuations have been assumed, as well as exit returns. It is also true that the majority of the returns are still unrealized — on one hand, there could be a company like Zenefits, estimated to be worth $4.5B but returning almost zero to investors after its acquisition, and on the other hand could be companies that have been bootstrapping after demo day, but may be worth billions.Power lawPower Law in venture capital is a principle where a few investments a few investments make up for the vast majority of returns. In this case, roughly 5% of companies returned 69% of the funds, and 10% of companies returned 82% of the funds.YC is one of the best VCs of all timeIf you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2015, you would have about $259.75 at the end of 2023, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 159.75%, or 11.64% per year.If you invested $100 in the W15 batch at demo day, you would have about $836.64 of unrealized value at the end of 2023. This is a return on investment of 736.64%, or 30.41% per year.If you invested $100 in YC’s W15 fund, you would have about $7027.77 of unrealized value at the end of 2023. This is a return on investment of 6027.77%, or 70.16% per year.The top quartile of VC funds have an average annual return ranging from 15% to 27% over the past 10 years.Our Orange Funds are performing as an index of the batchThe S14 batch includes 80 companies while our Orange Fund I only has 19; the W15 batch includes 111 companies while our Orange Fund II only has 19; the S15 batch includes 105 companies while our Orange Fund III only has 20; the W16 batch includes 123 companies while our Orange Fund IV only has 11.Our funds follow the returns of the respective YC batch by only including 10-20% of the total companies.Investing in all YC companies will put you in the top quartile of VCsInvesting in all YC companies of each batch will return on average 9.82 times the invested capital.This would be virtually impossible to accomplish in real life since some companies avoid raising on demo day, and some other companies will only accept a few investments from a few select investors.Reducing the chances of investing in all companies can plummet returns since missing out on even a couple of the companies in the batch can result in a poorly performing fund.Mattia Astorimattia@wefunder.com